The Non Farm Payroll Report Could Confirm The AUD Reversal Pattern

The Australian Dollar has been weakened from July 2014 when AUD was traded at 0.9499 to April 2015 which 0.7532 is the new lowest. (-20,7%). It performed a downtrend then AUD made a consolidation/sideways pattern with the same time also made a perfect inverse head and shoulder pattern.

Today market is waiting for the US non farm payroll and unemployment rate data. From my point of view these data could determine the next trend of Australian Dollar.

If the data is weak, I guess AUD will leave the neckline area 0.7930 and begin the up trend. Now let s try to calculate how minimum high it will go up

First, we calculate with a simple method. We measure the shortest deep from the neckline and label it as an x, it will go up minimum an x too. 

Second, based on Fibonacci retracement. 38.18% correction shows that AUD at 0.8279-8280.

Now let us wait what is the outcome of the data 

Happy Trading :)

Comprehensive Insurance

Berbicara mengenai proteksi,  beberapa dekade lalu asuransi adalah hal yang masih baru di masyarakat khususnya di Indonesia. Tidak banyak orang yang benar benar tahu mengenai manfaat asuransi. Saya salut dengan agen-agen perintis yang saat ini mungkin beberapanya sudah menjadi top manajemen di sana. Mereka lah yang berjasa membuka mindset mengenai pentingnya berasuransi.

Sebenarnya pokok Asuransi untuk individu ada 3 :

1. Asuransi Jiwa
2. Asuransi Penyakit Kritis
3. Asuransi Kesehatan dan Rumah Sakit

Ad 1:

Kalau nasabah bertanya berapakah maksimal perlindungan jiwa yang harus diikuti, ada beberapa cara perhitungan untuk itu antara lain; Human Life Value, Income Based Value dan Survival Based Value. Tetapi yang paling sederhana dan cukup masuk akal adalah Income Based Value.

Contoh:

Pak Andi berusia 35 tahun, bekerja dan tidak merokok memiliki penghasilan 20 juta per bulan. Penghasilannya ini dapat dipakai untuk menghidupi istri dan kedua anaknya, sisanya ditabung. Untuk menghitung berapa uang pertanggungan jiwa yang dibutuhkan oleh Pak Andi adalah

Misalkan Deposito saat ini adalah 8,75% per 6 bulan dan 9% per tahun. Kita ambil 9%, maka:

20 juta / (9% -20% tax x 30/365)  = 3,379,629,635 dibulatkan aja menjadi 3,4 M

kesimpulannya : Apabila Pak Andi mengalami musibah meninggal maka uang pertanggungan jiwanya yang sebesar Rp. 3,4 Milyar, bunga depositonya mencukupi untuk kebutuhan hidup anak istrinya per bulan.

Sekarang mari kita lihat komparasi untuk biaya asuransi (cost of insurance) Jiwa di beberapa perusahaan Asuransi

 ASURANSI    Cost Of Insurance 

*R*******          Rp 105.000 

 A**                          Rp   97.000 

Allianz Raina          Rp   80.000 

Dari tabel di atas dapat disimpulkan biaya Asuransi Jiwa Raina termurah

Ad2. 

Pada manfaat penyakit kritis faktor yang dipertimbangkan adalah, jumlah penyakit kritis yang dicover, masa perlindungan dan tentu saja tetap biaya asuransinya

ASURANSI  CI Cost Insurance Jml 

*R*******           Rp  147.917          34

Allianz Raina           Rp   79.583         49

Masih untuk manfaat sakit kritis, RAINA unggul dalam biaya asuransi yang lebih murah, dan lebih banyak jenis penyakit kritis yang dicover. 

Note : COI yang dipakai untuk ad 1 dan ad 2 adalah laki-laki, usia 35 tahun dan tidak merokok dengan tipe pekerjaan kelas 1

Ad 3.

Saat ini di Indonesia sepengetahuan saya baru ada 3 perusahaan asuransi yang menggunakan manfaat asuransi rumah sakit dengan sistem sesuai tagihan (On Bill).

Dalam hal ini kita tidak dapat menghitung biaya asuransi untuk membandingkan kelebihannya karena total manfaat yang diberikan masing-masing berbeda.

Kelebihan dari produk Prime Care dibanding yang lain sbb :

1. Memberikan fasilitas inap 1 kamar per 1 orang (kelas VIP), Beberapa asuransi memberikan plafon untuk kamar (tidak sesuai tagihan)
2. Memberikan fasilitas cashless sampai ke Singapura, beberapa asuransi kesehatan hanya sampai ke Malaysia, sisanya harus reimburse.
3. Meskipun China Indo India Equity Fund digadang-gadang sebagai fund dengan performance bagus, namun performance IDR Equity Fund termasuk salah satu fund dengan performance terbaik di unit link2 yang lain.

Note: 

-Untuk maternity dan perawatan gigi sifatnya tambahan, bukan berarti langsung dicover tetapi harus diikutkan terlebih dahulu

-Biaya akuisisi yang hanya di tahun pertama 50% tidak perlu dianggap sebagai selling poin, karena hasil ilustrasi investasi tidak mempengaruhi signifikan.

Bicara mengenai RAINA, produk ini memiliki keunggulan lain dengan fungsi payor keluarga.

Dapat dipakai untuk calon nasabah dengan usia 30-50 tahun.

Poin-poin penting dari ilustrasi di atas :

1. Pak Andi sebagai sumber penghasilan berencana menabung selama 10 tahun untuk dia dan keluarga (di gambar bisa dilihat P Andi dan istri @ 8 jt/bln, sedangkan anak2@2 jt/bln)
2. Bila Pak Andi terkena sakit kritis atau meninggal maka istri dan anak-anak otomatis ditabungkan oleh Raina sesuai rencana sampai mereka usia 65 (keunggulan manfaat payor keluarga)
3. Kalau misalkan semua sehat-sehat maka rencana masa depan tercapai (pensiun, modal kerja dan menikah untuk anak-anak)
4. Tetapi kalau ada musibah terjadi dengan pak Andi, rencana menabungnya akan dilanjutkan oleh Allianz Raina.

Note:

Bila nasabah masuk dengan mengikuti rencana tabungan di atas, otomatis premi reguler akan jadi lebih besar, karena yang dibuat adalah satu keluarga 

Satu asuransi lagi yang sifatnya tabungan masa depan yaitu : Golden Protector Manulife.

Keunggulan produk ini :

1. Berapapun nilai UP yang ditanggung tidak perlu medical check up
2. Tidak ada resiko investasi seperti asuransi unit link karena sifatnya nilai tunai (santunan) dijamin.
3. Ada bonus bonus nilai tunai tambahan (survival bonus dan terakhir terminal bonus) memasuki usia mapan per tahun
4. Produk ini sebenarnya paling bagus untuk nasabah dengan usia masuk 18-35 tahun, karena di usia tersebut total jaminan nilai tunai yang diberikan akan jauh lebih besar dari total premi yang ditabungkan  di atas umur itu sifatnya bukan lagi tabungan tapi lebih ditekankan ke proteksi.
5. Produk ini sudah tidak dijual lagi oleh Manulife sejak Januari 2014, jadi termasuk ekslusif.

Dari hal-hal di atas maka jelas :

• Bila ingin mengambil manfaat Jiwa dan penyakit kritis, pilih RAINA
• Bila ingin mengambil manfaat kesehatan rumah sakit, pilih PRIME CARE
• Bila ingin mengambil tabungan masa depan dengan proteksi pilih GOLDEN PROTECTOR
• Bila ingin mengambil manfaat tabungan dengan proteksi jiwa dan sakit kritis menyeluruh pilih RAINA

Happy Selling :)

How Low Oil Will Go?

"Oil freedom tip"

As for we all know, oil price has been down from June 2014 ($107.68/barrel) to today Jan 5 2015 (new level low at 51.44/barrel.). According to the statement of  Saudi Arabian Minister Ali Al Naimi, he didn't mind if the price goes down to $20/barrel and he persist to keep the production capacity.

The question is, should we start to buy oil or wait for a lower price? Warren Buffet once has said, chanelling from his mentor, Benjamin Graham, " Be greedy when  others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy".

If we look at the chart, in my opinion oil price can be considered as a market crash.

When Putin made a press conference couple weeks ago, he mentioned that the downtrend of oil were temporary. He bravely said it was a conspiracy between US and Saudi Arabian to punish his country and Iran.

Now, let s look at the bright side, if the oil price is cheap, dont you think the consumer spending will affect?

Study in US tells that with cheaper gasoline more people do travelling, and also the operational production cost would be lessened and the profit of the industry/manufacturing will be higher. Bottom line is in medium term the drop of the oil price bring much positive effects than negative ones. and lets say if this scenario is right, oil price will start to crawl up again. the physical level will be around $65-75/barrel or maybe more.

I start to go long with oil (in future contract) with the small portion and start to average gradually if it still going down, and put the biggest averaging around $20 (if it touchs, I dont think it does) or when there is a clear technical  reversal sign, because I dont think in the future we could get oil for free :)

A Slight Deep Retracement or A Beginning of New Trend?

Hi Everyone

Recently, It s been an extraordinary movement in the gold market. When the gold reached 1530, then suddenly it was a kind of extremely big selling pressure that made it down to 1321, with only 2 days. Some fundamentalist said that high volatility happened because the Cyprus sold it gold's reserves to bailout their country. Well I guess that' s just one small part of the reasons. Lets take a look at the chart below.

Gold Price before breaks 1530

This was the chart when the gold has not yet broken the support line (1530). As we can see, there is a prior uptrend, a consolidation trend, and since it broke the support line, the question now is it the beginning or a downtrend or only a correction? I guess it is a beginning of downtrend at least until around 1100 - 1200. In my personal opinion there are two scenarios where the gold can go down further.

SCENARIO 1

Simple Set Method

Let s call this a simple method. There is a distance from the support line to the latest new high. I labeled it as an x. So when the price broke the support it will reach to the almost same x distance. That price will be 1248

SCENARIO 2

Fibonacci Retracement Method

In Scenario 2, I used a very popular technical analysis, called Fibonacci Retracement. with this analysis the first target for gold price to 1305 - 1318 and then the second target to its 61.8% at 1157.

So lets watch where the gold goes in weeks
Happy Trading All :)

Gold Alert!

Frankly speaking I don't follow the market continuous lately, since I have a little urgent family's matter. Though As far as I can see, if anyone of us has buying gold especially in the derivative market, should be very careful.

Gold Chart

With the broad outline that the fundamental is still not good, and thanks to US Data Payroll came weaker than expected made the gold reaches new high to 1601, completing the fourth wave and in the coming weeks we may see the bearish (5th wave). 

If we see the technical outlook, gold has a strong support at 1520 -1525. As long as the price doesn't break the line, we could hope that gold still play in the range trading zone. But I guess it still has bigger room to go down at least at 1375-85. Just maybe :)

Been in Exile for A While

Dear Everyone,

First, let get the thing cleared. I have been not writing in this blog quite along time. Well, I have been trying to quit in this field but I guess my love for the market too deep to let it go. For the past few months I started a totally different field, situation, condition, people and of course different atmosphere.

Inhale....Exhale....No More Bones... No More Bones.....

To tell you the truth. There were conditions that made me not continuing to write. Couple things happened and I tried to clear my mind, and did something else, even it was totally new and I had to start all over again almost from scratches. Experience that, I get more knowledge. and I decide I will share what I know to all of you who wanna learn more about trading. I prefer to write psychology to market update. From that you will know what I've known and learned.

Just wait for my article, In no time I will write again and forgive me if my writing is not a good one, cause I am just a Beginner, hoping a good miracle. That's why I title this blog "Beginner's Luck" 

;) 

Always Bring Your Map When You Drive

 

Let's we go back to the time when I was still new about trading especially in futures. Back then when I wanted to trade, I always made trading plan first. Funny thing was after I entered a position and join the crowds, I became more impulsive, react to emotion instead of using my intellect, and deviated from my original plan.

People are likely to be rational when they are alone, and grow more impulsive when they join with crowds. The movement of price can hypnotizes traders , the bigger the fluctuation, the stronger the emotions. The more emotional market, the less efficient it is, and creates profit opportunities for calm and disciplined traders.

Before you trade always make a written plan, when you enter/exit the position, the reason and evaluate that.

I made a decision making tree for my trading guidance. It didn't make sure gain to me, but it made me to stay on the course when I was still at the opening position.

A Simple Decision Making Tree for Trading

We all start out as beginners. A trader with good plan shows a development. A beginner never writes down a plan because he is too lazy to write or has nothing to write. He is having too much fun chasing hot tips and then try to make a good entry.

GOLD: Selling When Everyone Else is Buying and....Buying When Everyone Else is Selling (Not Yet)

Spot Gold fell by more than 14 %  to $1559 for this month, as investors look safe havens which is cash and the dollar. A debt crisis in the euro could affect global economy and hit commodity markets. Some analysts have said the risks of gold being in overbought area, and having gone up for the past three years.

I was having a difficult time tried to measure how high for the gold because there were no history highs. But the bottom line was there would be a big correction for the gold. Now let's try to calculate how low the gold could fall.

If we calculate based on the uptrend line, the support level will be at 1477-1480. If we measure based on Fibonacci Retracement, it will touch at least 1450 and the 50% correction will be around 1300. As Usually, back to crisis, people prefer cash first to any investments.     

There Are Always Two Sides to Every Story

Today I am not writing about the market. My opinion is  still the same like the last one. This time I would like to share you a story. Perhaps we could take a lesson from that.:)

I have a friend, co worker friend actually.  He has been in this field for 3 years. One day, when we were having a little chit chat, accidentally he talked about his trading. He was upset because he still could not get sure profit from the market, and some of his investors got loss. From the way I see him, He is a discipline person, put all his time and energy for this work, Not just an ordinary traders, who just come to the office, make some calls, hope their investors buy their advise based on one page of paper only and do nothing for the rest of the day . He spends most of his time to study the market, and keep learning. I must admit he is very diligent. Yet he still cant make sure gain.

As a matter of fact, trading a plan is not only according our plan, but we  also must meet the investors agreement. The hardest thing is to educate them, not about making profit, but to make them knew that the market has no mercy. Unlike any common system, such as in traffic, even when we drive carelessly, another drivers avoid getting crash with us, even they pissed off. But market likes your careless trade, donate our cash to them. No one tell you that your trading pattern is dangerous, as long as you have the equity. you have the right to trade the way you like, even the result is worst.
A couple years ago, I had an investor who played quite big. His trading actually was quite good. The problem was he was very stubborn, and never admit that sometimes our open positions were bad. His pride will not allow him to be wrong.  He liked to trade big, and let the positions floated. Once, when I detected a trouble, when the euro was 1,2500, we were having sell positions at that time, I told him to cut our positions 200 points loss, but he refused. I kept try to tell him the next few days that the euro had broken its resistance and we should considered cut the positions. The answer is still "No". In our unwritten rule, Investors are the king, their decisions are subtle. That is one of the biggest obstacle  for the trader besides good trading, good money management, and good psychology trading. Making profit from the market is already difficult, but sometimes the investors make it worse by their urgency trade. Anyway, few months later, when the euro traded at level 1,4300, which we never expected to go up that far, he began to ask me his positions. Hold or cut? It was the most difficult question for me to answer. When we were behind 200-300 points, I have no doubt to cut the positions, but when they were already 1800 points, cut the positions were not so easy. 

Imagine you are a chef, and some day I cooked food with my own style, then I give it to you when the food is half burnt. If the food is burnt or not well cooked, then you have fully responsible for that. Sounds not fair huh? well, the world is already not fair for too long time, and we often experience that situation.

I am just saying to my friend, that is our cost for being trader. How many times we  becomes a scapegoat for their poor trades?. It was everyone fault actually. But who knows the real truth?. Just keep the coin one side seen, my friend. The important thing we do have a goodwill, keep doing the best and don't care what others said and thought. Trust me, even when you are doing right or doing nothing wrong, there are some people still blame you, but for sure not the wiser ones I guess.  

It's Only the Beginning, It is So Not Over...Yet!

Yesterday, SNP Index pass through 48. Buckle up guys, otherwise u may get kicked out. If you are new visitor, See my article before