“Futures look dangerous at first. Nine out of ten traders go bust in their first year. As you look closer, it becomes clear that the danger is not in the futures but in the people who trade them”
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Friday, September 30, 2011

Always Bring Your Map When You Drive


Let's we go back to the time when I was still new about trading especially in futures. Back then when I wanted to trade, I always made trading plan first. Funny thing was after I entered a position and join the crowds, I became more impulsive, react to emotion instead of using my intellect, and deviated from my original plan.
People are likely to be rational when they are alone, and grow more impulsive when they join with crowds. The movement of price can hypnotizes traders , the bigger the fluctuation, the stronger the emotions. The more emotional market, the less efficient it is, and creates profit opportunities for calm and disciplined traders.
Before you trade always make a written plan, when you enter/exit the position, the reason and evaluate that.
I made a decision making tree for my trading guidance. It didn't make sure gain to me, but it made me to stay on the course when I was still at the opening position.


A Simple Decision Making Tree for Trading


We all start out as beginners. A trader with good plan shows a development. A beginner never writes down a plan because he is too lazy to write or has nothing to write. He is having too much fun chasing hot tips and then try to make a good entry.

Monday, September 26, 2011

GOLD: Selling When Everyone Else is Buying and....Buying When Everyone Else is Selling (Not Yet)

Spot Gold fell by more than 14 %  to $1559 for this month, as investors look safe havens which is cash and the dollar. A debt crisis in the euro could affect global economy and hit commodity markets. Some analysts have said the risks of gold being in overbought area, and having gone up for the past three years.
I was having a difficult time tried to measure how high for the gold because there were no history highs. But the bottom line was there would be a big correction for the gold. Now let's try to calculate how low the gold could fall.


If we calculate based on the uptrend line, the support level will be at 1477-1480. If we measure based on Fibonacci Retracement, it will touch at least 1450 and the 50% correction will be around 1300. As Usually, back to crisis, people prefer cash first to any investments.